Selection of 51 predictors from 13,782 candidate multimodal features using machine learning improves coronary artery disease prediction.

Patterns (N Y)
Authors
Keywords
Abstract

Current cardiovascular risk assessment tools use a small number of predictors. Here, we study how machine learning might: (1) enable principled selection from a large multimodal set of candidate variables and (2) improve prediction of incident coronary artery disease (CAD) events. An elastic net-based Cox model (ML4H) trained and evaluated in 173,274 UK Biobank participants selected 51 predictors from 13,782 candidates. Beyond most traditional risk factors, ML4H selected a polygenic score, waist circumference, socioeconomic deprivation, and several hematologic indices. A more than 30-fold gradient in 10-year risk estimates was noted across ML4H quintiles, ranging from 0.25% to 7.8%. ML4H improved discrimination of incident CAD (C-statistic = 0.796) compared with the Framingham risk score, pooled cohort equations, and QRISK3 (range 0.754-0.761). This approach to variable selection and model assessment is readily generalizable to a broad range of complex datasets and disease endpoints.

Year of Publication
2021
Journal
Patterns (N Y)
Volume
2
Issue
12
Pages
100364
Date Published
2021 Dec 10
ISSN
2666-3899
DOI
10.1016/j.patter.2021.100364
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PubMed ID
34950898
PubMed Central ID
PMC8672148
Links
Grant list
MC_PC_17228 / MRC_ / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
MC_QA137853 / MRC_ / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom