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OBJECTIVE: This study examined specific measures of weight loss in relation to incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective, observational study analyzed nine weight measures, characterizing baseline weight, short- versus long-term weight loss, short- versus long-term weight regain, and weight cycling, within the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention arm (n = 1,000) for predictors of incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors over 2 years.

RESULTS: Although weight loss in the first 6 months was protective of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.94 per kg, 95% CI 0.90, 0.98; P 0.01) and cardiometabolic risk factors (P 0.01), weight loss from 0 to 2 years was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes incidence (HR 0.90 per kg, 95% CI 0.87, 0.93; P 0.01) and cardiometabolic risk factor improvement (e.g., fasting glucose: β = -0.57 mg/dL per kg, 95% CI -0.66, -0.48; P 0.01). Weight cycling (defined as number of 5-lb [2.25-kg] weight cycles) ranged 0-6 times per participant and was positively associated with incident diabetes (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12, 1.58; P 0.01), fasting glucose (β = 0.91 mg/dL per cycle; P = 0.02), HOMA-IR (β = 0.25 units per cycle; P = 0.04), and systolic blood pressure (β = 0.94 mmHg per cycle; P = 0.01). After adjustment for baseline weight, the effect of weight cycling remained statistically significant for diabetes risk (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.02, 1.47; P = 0.03) but not for cardiometabolic traits.

CONCLUSIONS: Two-year weight loss was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes risk and improvements in cardiometabolic traits.