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BACKGROUND: Whereas several longitudinal metabolomics studies have been conducted in individuals with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline, disease progression among individuals with established chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been rigorously examined.

METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study of rapid CKD progression in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study, profiling baseline plasma from 200 individuals each with eGFR slope -3 ml/min/1.73 m2/year (cases) or between -1 and +1 ml/min/1.73 m2/year (controls), matched on baseline eGFR and proteinuria. To directly assess how the kidney modulates circulating metabolites, we profiled plasma from the aorta and renal vein of 25 hospital-based individuals.

RESULTS: At baseline, cases and controls had a mean eGFR of 41.7 ± 13.3 and 45.0 ± 14.5 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Ten plasma metabolites were nominally associated with CKD progression in logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, hypertension, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, eGFR and proteinuria; no metabolite achieved the Bonferroni-adjusted significance threshold (p 0.0003). In a cross-sectional analysis, all 6 of the metabolites that were higher in cases than controls were significantly associated with eGFR at baseline. By contrast, threonine, methionine and arginine were lower in cases than in controls and had no association with baseline eGFR. Furthermore, in the hospital-based cohort that underwent renal arteriovenous sampling, these 3 metabolites were net released from the kidney. Combining these metabolites into a panel of markers further strengthened their association with CKD progression.

CONCLUSION: Our results motivate interest in arginine, methionine and threonine as potential indicators of renal metabolic function and markers of renal prognosis.